Saturday, 21 September 2019

ART suitable for Kuching, but for Penang?


Kuching will soon have their autonomous rail rapid transit (ART), as announced by Sarawak Chief Minister Datuk Patinggi Abang Johari Tun Openg.

ART is a new bus system that is designed like a tram. The advantage of ART compared to conventional tram is that it doesn’t require extensive groundwork to build its track.

As Penang is currently on its way to construct Light Rail Transit (LRT), there are NGOs lobbying for the ART, Bus Rapid Transit, and conventional tram.

The main difference between the NGOs’ suggestion and the State Government’s is whether to build the transport system on the ground or on elevated tracks.

The NGOs want the system on the ground, regardless if it’s ART, BRT, or tram. Their main rationale is that it is cheaper

The basis for the NGOs’ claim is the Halcrow Report, prepared by third-party consultants in 2013 as a guide for Penang’s transport plan.

But they are wrong for two reasons.

First, the estimated cost stated in Halcrow Report that the NGOs referred to is unverified and incomplete.

Halcrow’s estimate doesn’t even include the cost for land acquisition, which can go up to the billions, depending on the roads and properties to be acquired.

Here is Halcrow’s disclaimer which the NGOs do not show to the public (emphasis added):

“It should be noted that all infrastructure provision costs exclude costs associated with land acquisition. It should also be noted that these cost estimates have been produced for the sole purpose of gaining a high-level understanding of the overall costs that are likely to be associated with implementing the 'Recommended Transport Master Plan Strategy'. As such, they are based on the adoption of a number of assumptions that are yet to be verified through the undertaking of more detailed feasibility studies.”
(Halcrow's report: The 'Recommended Transport Master Plan Strategy', March 2013, page 39)

Halcrow made it clear that their estimation was unverified and incomplete.

To be sure, the ART is not listed in Halcrow Report. Nonetheless, the unverified costing listed in Halcrow for other on-ground transport system has been misused by NGOs.

The second reason why the NGOs are wrong is that they have failed again and again to take note the important qualification stated in Halcrow Report about transport system that is built on ground in Penang.

Halcrow explicitly warned that on-ground system will add more traffic problems to the existing roads (emphasis added):

“On Penang Island, particularly within George Town and on the approaches to George Town, many of the existing roads are fronted by established development and are already catering for a wide mix of transport uses. The introduction of an extensive Tram and Bus Rapid Transit system, as proposed under the 'Recommended Transport Master Plan Strategy', with [sic] further add to these problems.
(Halcrow's Report: The Highway Improvement Plan, May 2013, page 7)

As stated in Halcrow, transport system that is built on ground such as tram or bus rapid transit will cause more problems to the present built environment in Penang.

If Penang wants to build on-ground system, many existing buildings and structures will need to be demolished to construct new roads for public transport.

That’s what will happen in Kuching – new roads will be built for ART.

In Sarawak Chief Minister’s announcement, he has remarked that from next year onwards, they will construct new roads as dedicated lanes for ART.

Sarawak as the largest state in Malaysia has more unused and underused land to build new roads for ART, but not so for Penang, the second smallest state.

Land acquisition cost in Sarawak may be very different from Penang too. For any State Government to acquire premium land with standing building will cost a lot.

The ART works for Sarawak but might not work for Penang.

Friday, 20 September 2019

Malaysia needs high-skilled jobs for our youths

https://allwork.space/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/DDI23-6.png
From 2010 to 2017, more than 170,000 graduates entered the workforce annually. However, there were only 98,000 high-skilled employment gains in that period, according to Bank Negara.[1]

That means, out of 10 graduates, more than 4 were employed below their qualification.

Murray Hunter recently pointed out that youth unemployment reached almost 60 per cent of the 504,000 unemployed.[2]

Underemployment and youth unemployment are urgent issues that need solution. The remedy lies in our education system, economic policy, and response to global market condition.

After more than 60 years under Barisan Nasional, is our country’s competitiveness robust? Are our education system and social and cultural upbringing preparing our youths to be productively employed? Is our country attracting enough investment that generate high-value jobs?

As the statistics above shown, the answer to these questions is sadly, ‘No, no, and no.’

In 1965, Malaysia’s GDP per capita was US$310 while South Korea's was US$108. Our economic productivity was about 65 per cent more than South Korean.

Fast forward to 53 years later, in 2018, our GDP per capita was US$11,239, while South Korea’s was US$31,363. They have surpassed us by 179 per cent.[3]

In the past, Vietnam used to be backward compared to Malaysia. Today, Vietnam ranked nine spots above Malaysia in World Bank’s Human Capital Index.[4]

The US News and World Report has recently named Vietnam as the eighth best country for investment with Malaysia as the thirteenth.[5]

The global market economy doesn’t wait for anyone. Either we improve our competitive advantage or be left behind.

For a state like Penang, with zero natural resources, there is no time to lose. The state has to leverage on its growing manufacturing and services sectors.

The plans to reclaim new land bank for industrial and commercial expansion and to build an integrated transport infrastructure can help to reduce underemployment and youth unemployment. We have high-skilled graduates. What we lack are high-skilled jobs.

Macau’s newly launched Light Rail Transit (LRT) is a good example. The LRT project has created more than 500 employment opportunities and provided platform for knowledge transfer to develop local workforce.[6]

References

[1] http://www.bnm.gov.my/files/publication/ar/en/2018/cp01_001_box.pdf

[2] https://www.malaymail.com/news/what-you-think/2019/09/10/malaysia-faces-youth-unemployment-crisis-murray-hunter/1789238

[3] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2018&locations=KR-MY&start=1960

[4] https://photius.com/rankings/human_capital_index_country_rankings_2018.html

[5] https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/492507

[6] https://macaunews.mo/mtr-hires-over-570-staff-for-lrt-operation-git-chief/